Does dropshipping still work now that de minimis is gone?

It works on different products. Duty is charged as a percentage, so it hurts low-cost, low-margin items hardest — precisely the $5–15 goods the model was built on. Products where cost of goods is a smaller share of price absorb the duty far better. The model did not die; the product selection that suited it did.

Should I use platform-reported cost per purchase for ad spend?

Use total spend divided by actual orders instead. Platform CPA is calculated against the orders the platform claims, and when two platforms both claim the same order, both report a flattering CPA. Your bank statement does not have that problem.

Why is duty calculated on product cost rather than selling price?

Duty is assessed on the customs value at import, which is what you paid for the goods, not what you later sell them for. That is why raising your price improves margin without increasing duty, and why sourcing a cheaper unit saves you the unit cost plus the duty on it.

What net margin should I be targeting?

Targets vary too much by category and stage to be useful as a benchmark, but the structural point holds regardless: a net margin thinner than your month-to-month CPA volatility is not a business, it is a coin flip. If a 15% CPA swing wipes out your margin, the margin is too thin regardless of what any benchmark says.

Where do returns fit in?

They do not appear here, because this calculates a single completed order. For a portfolio view you need the return rate and the fact that duty is never refunded — a returned unit costs you the refund plus everything you already paid to import it. The break-even ROAS calculator handles that properly.

Dropshipping Profit Calculator with Tariffs

What one order actually leaves you after duty, fees, shipping and the ad spend that bought it — priced against the 2026 tariff stack rather than last year's.

Selling price

FOB unit price

The base of the customs value duty is charged on.

Fulfilment shipping per order

Platform fee

Marketplace commission. Zero on your own store.

Payment fee

Per transaction

Ad spend per order

What you actually pay to acquire one order.

Country of origin

Where the goods were made, not where they shipped from.

Product category

Section 301 list (China)

Applies per HTS code — check yours, we won't guess it.

Section 232 goods (steel, aluminium, copper, vehicles, wood products)Exempt from the forced labor duty, but carry their own Section 232 rates this tool does not model.

Every layer of this rate is explained in the tariff calculator.

Net profit per order

$7.28

Net margin: 18.7%
Your ROAS at that spend: 3.00x
Break-even ad spend: $20.28
Headroom before you lose money: $7.28
Duty: $3.29

How that 36.5% duty rate is built

MFN duty (general rate)16.5%
2026 Revision 20 · verified 2026-10-02 · source: USITC Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States
Section 301 (China lists)7.5%
since 2020-02-14 · verified 2026-10-02 · source: USTR, China Section 301 Tariff Actions and Exclusion Process
Section 301 (forced labor)12.5%
since 2026-07-24 · verified 2026-10-02 · source: USTR, Notice of Actions in Section 301 Forced Labor Investigations (Docket Nos. USTR-2026-0265, USTR-2026-0266)
Combined36.5%

What this estimate can get wrong (2)

MFN is a category approximation from 6109.10.00. Rates apply per 8-digit HTS code and range 0.9%–32% across HTS 6109–6110.
Annex I of the USTR notice exempts civil aircraft parts, articles for pharmaceutical use, goods already covered by Section 232 (steel/aluminium/copper articles, vehicles and their parts, wood products such as upholstered wooden seating and kitchen cabinets, patented pharmaceuticals and semiconductors), charitable relief donations and informational materials. Product-specific exemptions under HTSUS U.S. note 52 (872 codes for every origin, plus per-economy lists) are only applied when you pick an HTS code; in category mode none is applied. If you import metal drinkware, aluminium cases or similar, check whether your code falls under the Section 232 carve-out.

What is my CPA ceiling? →

Tariffs change. Your floor changes with them.

We write when a rate actually moves. Not on a schedule, not otherwise.

Tracking more than a handful of SKUs? Pro watches every floor for you — $19/month flat, no per-order fees.

Profit per order, all in

Every other number in dropshipping is a proxy for this one: what is left in your account after a single order has been through the whole machine.

Net profit = price − landed cost − shipping − platform fee − payment fee − ad spend

The reason dropshipping margins collapsed is sitting in the third term. Until 2025 a $9 product from China under $800 crossed the border duty-free. That exemption is gone for every country, and the duty stack that replaced it runs 26.5% to 36.5% for the origins and categories most dropshippers use.

A model that penciled at $9 landed does not pencil at $12.29 landed. This calculator makes you look at that directly rather than discovering it three months into a campaign.

What each input does

Product cost: What your supplier charges per unit. Duty is calculated on this, so it is doing double work — every dollar here costs you the dollar plus the duty on it.
Shipping per order: What you pay to get it to the customer, not what you charge them. If you charge for shipping, that revenue offsets this line; if you offer it free, it is a straight cost.
Platform fee: Marketplace commission. Zero on your own store, meaningful on TikTok Shop or Amazon, and applied to the full sale price rather than to your margin.
Ad spend per order: The input that separates this calculator from a break-even one. Here you already know what acquisition costs, and the question is whether the order survives it. Take total spend divided by orders, not the cost-per-purchase your ad platform reports — those two differ by whatever the platform is over-attributing.

A worked example

A $39 product costing $9 from China, $5 to ship to the customer, no marketplace fee, standard 2.9% + $0.30 payments, and $13 of ad spend per order. Knit apparel duty from China is 36.5%.

Duty adds $3.29, so the goods land at $12.29. Costs before advertising come to $18.72, leaving $20.28 of contribution — that is your break-even ad spend. At $13 spent, net profit is $7.28 per order, a 18.7% net margin, at a 3.00x ROAS.

Now delete the duty. Contribution rises to $23.57 and the same order nets $10.57. The tariff took 31% of this order’s profit, and nothing in Ads Manager will ever tell you that.

What to do with the headroom number

Headroom is the gap between your break-even ad spend and what you are actually paying. It is the most operationally useful figure on the page, because it converts directly into a decision.

Wide headroom means you can bid harder for volume. Thin headroom means a modest CPA increase — a seasonal auction, a creative that fatigues — puts you underwater without any visible change in your dashboard. Negative headroom means every additional order makes things worse, and scaling makes it worse faster.

A useful discipline: recheck headroom whenever a rate changes, not when performance dips. By the time performance dips you have already paid for the discovery.

Questions

Does dropshipping still work now that de minimis is gone?: It works on different products. Duty is charged as a percentage, so it hurts low-cost, low-margin items hardest — precisely the $5–15 goods the model was built on. Products where cost of goods is a smaller share of price absorb the duty far better. The model did not die; the product selection that suited it did.
Should I use platform-reported cost per purchase for ad spend?: Use total spend divided by actual orders instead. Platform CPA is calculated against the orders the platform claims, and when two platforms both claim the same order, both report a flattering CPA. Your bank statement does not have that problem.
Why is duty calculated on product cost rather than selling price?: Duty is assessed on the customs value at import, which is what you paid for the goods, not what you later sell them for. That is why raising your price improves margin without increasing duty, and why sourcing a cheaper unit saves you the unit cost plus the duty on it.
What net margin should I be targeting?: Targets vary too much by category and stage to be useful as a benchmark, but the structural point holds regardless: a net margin thinner than your month-to-month CPA volatility is not a business, it is a coin flip. If a 15% CPA swing wipes out your margin, the margin is too thin regardless of what any benchmark says.
Where do returns fit in?: They do not appear here, because this calculates a single completed order. For a portfolio view you need the return rate and the fact that duty is never refunded — a returned unit costs you the refund plus everything you already paid to import it. The break-even ROAS calculator handles that properly.

Related calculators and guides

Break-Even ROAS Calculator

The ROAS below which every sale loses money.

US Import Tariff Calculator

Import duty by origin and product, every layer sourced and dated.

Break-Even CPA Calculator

The most you can pay for one order.

Tariff Impact on Dropshipping, 2026

Ten categories, floors before and after duty.

Sources and last update

Last verified 2026-10-02.

USITC Harmonized Tariff Schedule — MFN general rates
USTR — Section 301 forced labor actions, effective 24 July 2026
CBP — end of de minimis treatment for low-value shipments

Figures here are planning estimates. Duty applies per 10-digit HTS code and platform fees change without much notice — check your own broker and your own seller account before committing spend. Full workings on the methodology page.